The broader stock market appears top heavy, and I expect it to struggle to make new all-time highs into year-end. I especially remain bearish on the recent high-flying tech IPOs and SPAC conversions, most of which have gotten slammed during the past couple of weeks. In the coming weeks and months, don’t be surprised to see a large number of electric-vehicle-related and other stocks drop 90%. Remain vigilant about what you buy and keep some cash to build up the good stocks.
Tesla and other EVs Today, I’m going to hit on a favorite topic of mine. People ask me all the time what other EV stocks besides Tesla Inc.
they should be looking at. I have a story about Tesla that will help us answer that question. A couple weeks ago, my wife and I had to run up to the Tesla service center in El Paso, Texas, about two hours from our house. When we’d tinted the windows on our Model 3 a few weeks prior, the passenger window started acting funky when we’d try to raise or lower it from the driver side controls. We pulled into the service center parking, followed the sign to an automatic garage door that opened for us and pulled in front of a nice man sitting at a desk. He knew who we were, asked us if there were any other problems Tesla could fix (we had a cracked taillight and they fixed it for about $200). Then he handed us a fob and said that our replacement car, a 2019 Model S, was waiting outside. It had been a while since I’d been in a Model S, and they are very nice. So nice that my wife started looking into how much we can get for our Model 3 in case we want to trade up — what we learned blew our minds. Most of you reading this probably remember when and why I bought my Tesla Model 3, two and half years ago. I wanted to see what kind of car Tesla had produced for the mass market and check out the full self-driving (FSD) technologies. My wife and I bought the long-range, dual motor Model 3 with FSD, which cost about $3,000 at the time, for about $55,000. The car now has 31,000 miles on it and with a shortage of new cars out there along with the FSD technology now going for $10,000 a pop, our 2018 Tesla Model 3 is worth $56,000. A few years ago, Elon told everyone that Tesla cars would turn into appreciating assets, becoming worth more than what you paid for them. I guess he turned out to be right already! My Tesla Model 3 is now worth almost 2% more than what I paid for it after 1,000 days of driving it. One other thing to note is that Tesla’s stock has gone up even more than the price of FSD over that last 2.5 years while I’ve owned my Tesla FSD package. The price for FSD has gone from $3,000 to $5,000 to $8,000 to $10,000 (or about 233% since we bought our Tesla), but the stock price has gone from $50 to $500 back to $100 to $900 back to $500 and now to about $800 (or up about 1,500% since we bought our Tesla stock). Amazing. It’s no surprise that the rest of the world, especially the car industry, has finally jumped in and started investing hundreds of billions of dollars in EVs. Tesla’s valuation is $784 billion. I don’t want to load up on a fresh new long Tesla position right now. Then again, I would rather buy shares of Tesla for a high price than invest in any of these companies mentioned in this MarketWatch article that are not named Tesla. Maybe Rivian, Lucid Group Inc.
and Byd Co.
(backed by Warren Buffett) will make it. But most of the others, including the old Detroit and European gas car makers, are in trouble in coming years as the field is clearly way too crowded. Most EV companies will, of course, go bankrupt before they make it to 10 years.Stay focused on space and crypto The broader stock market and EV stocks are not what we want to focus on right now — the big things will come from the Space Revolution and blockchain/crypto. Even blockchain/crypto feels bubbled up as there are thousands of tokens out there trading for a collective hundreds of billions of dollars that will be wiped out at some point, probably soon. That said, I’m saying that blockchain/crypto and space are two places we should continue to dig into to find the next generation of Revolution investments for us. Everything else just might be a waste of time right now. Stay focused and don’t buy any new positions just to keep yourself entertained. The great wealth isn’t built overnight, and I think I see trillions of dollars that are going to be made in coming years in space and blockchain/crypto. Cody Willard is a columnist for MarketWatch and editor of the Revolution Investing newsletter. Willard or his investment firm may own, or plan to own, securities mentioned in this column.